4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 22

Buffalo Bills 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.85 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model