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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 31

Houston Texans 14 – Tennessee Titans 35

What Actually Happened

(1:40) (Shotgun) 2-A.McCarron pass incomplete short right to 16-K.Coutee.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.46 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP