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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 30

Houston Texans 14 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(3:30) (Shotgun) 2-A.McCarron pass short right intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 15. 31-K.Byard pushed ob at TEN 15 for no gain (38-G.Howell).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.05 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EP