Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 76

Houston Texans 14 – Tennessee Titans 28

(7:56) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to TEN 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-R.Davis. Punt Hangtime: 4.97s

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.84 EP
71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model