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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 51

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(:47) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to HOU 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. Punt Hangtime: 4.07s

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.78 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model