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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 67

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 9-B.Anger punts 58 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-R.Davis to TEN 19 for 10 yards (33-A.Moore; 34-T.Jones). Punt Hangtime: 4.72s

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP