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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.69 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model