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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 5

Seattle Seahawks 21 – San Francisco 49ers 26

What Actually Happened

(:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 48-J.Hollister to SF 1 for 4 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.95 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model