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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 12

Seattle Seahawks 21 – San Francisco 49ers 26

What Actually Happened

(:42) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 15-J.Ursua to SF 1 for 11 yards (24-K.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.28 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.21 EP