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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 26 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to SEA 27, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.14 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 70, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 28, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP