4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 31

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(:49) 73-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 24-M.Lynch left guard to SF 31 for no gain (97-N.Bosa).

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.63 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model