Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:59) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to SF 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 21 for 6 yards (27-M.Blair).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.71 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model