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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 12

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.65 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model