Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to SF 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 31 for 4 yards (44-N.Bellore). PENALTY on SF-32-D.Reed Jr., Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.32 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model