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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 56

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to LV 7, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.36 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model