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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 83-D.Waller.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.31 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model