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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to DEN 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.57 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP