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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 41

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 6-A.Cole punts 31 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model