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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 1

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(4:14) (Run formation) 45-A.Ingold up the middle to DEN 1 for no gain (58-V.Miller, 45-A.Johnson). Oakland challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 04:06.)

The Three Options

GO +3.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 1, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model