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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 22

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.94 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model