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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 77

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(10:44) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right end to LAC 24 for 1 yard (23-A.Watts).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.79 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model