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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 77

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 63 yards to LAC 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-B.Pringle.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.15 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP