Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(9:53) 1-T.Long punts 44 yards to KC 10, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman to KC 16 for 6 yards (23-R.Jenkins; 48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 54, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model