Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 38

(4:16) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 83-M.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

What Happened

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.14 EP
63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 80, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.79 EP