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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 2

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 5-C.McLaughlin 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 2, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP