Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

(6:18) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 18 for 5 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.50 EP
69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model