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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 32

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(:44) 5-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.51 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model