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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 51

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.51 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.93 EP