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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 31

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 33-A.Jones up the middle to DET 29 for 2 yards (54-S.Longa; 99-J.Atkins).

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.77 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model