Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 69

Detroit Lions 20 – Green Bay Packers 20

(1:27) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to GB 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.17 EP
55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -2.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model