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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 31

Green Bay Packers 13 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(5:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DET 28 for 3 yards (23-D.Slay). DET-94-A.Bryant was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.63 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model