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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 13 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to DET 33, Center-43-H.Bradley. 39-J.Agnew to DET 44 for 11 yards (51-K.Fackrell).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.44 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model