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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 22

Green Bay Packers 10 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.91 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model