Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(12:21) 6-J.Scott punts 51 yards to DET 27, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.97 EP
60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model