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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 33

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.24 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model