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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 6-J.Scott punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.95 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model