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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 80

Detroit Lions 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to GB 34, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model