Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 23

What Actually Happened

(4:43) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to CIN 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 39 for 3 yards (97-P.Gustin; 47-C.Hughlett). PENALTY on CIN-55-L.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model