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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(3:55) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 30-D.Johnson to CLE 19 for 9 yards (50-Jo.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.36 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 24, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model