Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 9-R.Allen punts 44 yards to TB 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens. PENALTY on TB-52-N.Dawkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at TB 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.54 EP
63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model