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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 9-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.44 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP