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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 9

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP