Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 – Atlanta Falcons 19

(3:11) 8-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to ATL 15, Center-97-Z.Triner. 38-K.Barner to ATL 20 for 5 yards (17-J.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.92 EP
65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -2.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model