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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 86

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to ATL 40, Center-97-Z.Triner. 38-K.Barner to ATL 38 for -2 yards (51-K.Minter).

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.43 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 86, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model