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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22

What Actually Happened

(12:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 24-D.Freeman (92-W.Gholston).

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.70 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model