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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 9-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model