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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 38

Atlanta Falcons 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 9-R.Allen punts 26 yards to TB 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.08 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model