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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 26

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 9-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.65 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model