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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 1-T.Long punts 51 yards to LV 16, Center-45-C.Mazza. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 28 for 12 yards (31-A.Phillips; 57-J.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.90 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 25, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP