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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 1-T.Long punts 51 yards to LV 15, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.25 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP